Prospects for the Development of China's Foreign Contracted Projects in 2019
Inrecentyears,China'soutsourcingcontractingindustryhasbeenoutstandingagainstthebackgroundoftheglobalindustryslowdown.Butitshouldalsobenotedthatunderthegeneraltrendofglobaleconomicrecovery,allkindsofcontradictionsandconflictsaremorecomplex,whichnotonlyrestrictstherecoveryofthemarket,butalsoincreasestheuncertaintyandriskofEngineeringprojects.Itshouldbenotedthatchangebringsrisksaswellasopportunitiesfordevelopment.Lookingaheadto2019,China'sforeigncontractingengineeringenterprisesneedtorespondpositivelytoenhancetheirsustainabledevelopmentabilitywiththeconceptofmutualbenefitandwin-win.TheglobaleconomicandtradeenvironmentstillfacesenormouschallengesTheENRanalysisshowsthattheglobalmarketbegantoimprovein2018aftersevenyearsofslowgrowth,butmaybedifferentin2019.Themarketofforeigncontractedprojectsiscloselyrelatedtothelevelofeconomicdevelopment.Theglobaleconomywillcontinuetoexpandingeneralin2019.Influencedbyprotectivemeasuresofsomecountries,thespeedofeconomicexpansionhassloweddown,whichexertspressureonthedevelopmentofthecontractedprojectsindustry.TheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)pointedoutinitsWorldEconomicOutlook(WEO)inJanuary2019thatthemomentumofglobaleconomicexpansionhasweakened.Thegrowthrateisexpectedtobe3.7%in2018,3.5%in2019and3.6%in2020,respectively.AfterthedownwardgrowthratereportedbyWEOinOctoberlastyear,thegrowthratehasbeenreducedby0.2percentagepointsand0.1percentagepointsrespectively.Ifcalculatedaccordingtomarketexchangerate,theworldeconomicgrowthratewillcontinuetodeclinefrom3.2%in2017to3.1%,3.0%and2.9%in2018-2020,respectively.Thedeclineineconomicgrowthhasledtoadecreaseingovernmentrevenue,andadecreaseintheactivityofprivatesectoroperations,whichhasweakenedthedemandforengineeringprojects.Globaltradevolumeisexpectedtoremainstablefrom2018to2020,at4.0%,slowingdownby1.3%over2017.Internationaltradeisnotonlyareflectionoftherelationshipbetweensupplyanddemandinthemarketbetweencountries,butalsogreatlyinfluencedbytheinternationaltradeenvironmentandsystem.Generallyspeaking,duetothereductionoftradevolumeduetoeconomicdemand,theimpactoncontractedprojectsismostlyshort-term,whiletheimpactontradevolumeduetoinstitutionalchangessuchastradebarriersisrelativelylong-term.Pricesofcommoditieshavediverged.Overall,onthebasisofa23.3%increasein2017,oilpricescontinuedtogrowby29.9%in2018,bringingglobaloilpricestoanewhighsincetheoutbreakoftheeconomiccrisis.However,duetotheslowdownineconomicdemandandtheexpansionofoilproductionintheUnitedStates,itisexpectedthatglobaloilpriceswillfallby14.1%in2019.In2020,oilpricesmaycontinuetodecline,butthedeclinewillnarrowto0.4%.Accordingtotheweightofglobalcommodityexports,non-fuelcommoditypriceswilldecreaseby2.7%in2019andincreaseby1.2%in2020afterincreasingby1.9%in2018,andremainbasicallystable.Thechangeofcommoditypricesreflectsthewillingnessofenterprisestoinvestintheindustry.Withthedeclineofprices,thecapitalinflowsintotheoilindustrydecrease,whichleadstotheshrinkageofthemarketforsuchprojects.However,non-fuelcommoditiesreflecttheindustrialdemandofeconomicactivities,andbasicallystablepricesareconducivetothedevelopmentoftheengineeringindustry.Consumerpricesareamanifestationofinflation.In2018,theinflationrateofdevelopedeconomieswas2.0%,basicallyreachingthegoaloftraditionalpolicyregulation,whilethatofemerginganddevelopingeconomieswas4.9%,withaslightlyhigherinflationrate.Inflationindevelopedeconomiesisexpectedtobe1.7%and2.0%in2019and2020,whileinemerginganddevelopingeconomiesitisexpectedtobe5.1%and4.6%respectively.Relativelymildinflationreflectsthebasicbalancebetweensupplyanddemandintheeconomy,andisalsoconducivetoorderlymarketexpansion.Thecontractingprojectmarketisgreatlyaffectedbyinflation,involvingequipment,rawmaterialsandhumancosts,etc.Relativelymildinflationisconducivetothecontrolofindustrycosts,short-termprojectcostsarereduced,andthefinancialrisksofmediumandlong-termprojectsarealsoreducedaccordingly.Thecostofcapitalfinancingvarieswithcurrency.Forexample,thesix-monthdepositrateoftheU.S.dollarwillgraduallyincreasefrom2.5%and3.2%to3.8%in2018-2020,whilethethree-monthdepositrateoftheeurowillreach0%from2017-2019,andthesix-monthdepositrateoftheJapaneseyenfrom2017-2019isexpectedtoriseto0.1%in2020.ThechangeininterestratesindicatesthattheUSdollarremainsstrong,theEuroislikelytorisebecauseofthegradualintroductionofquantitativeeasingbytheEuropeanCentralBank,andtheJapaneseeconomyisstillweakintheshortterm.Thedifferenceoffinancingcostbetweendifferentcurrencieshasanimpactonthecurrencyoffundsapplicabletovariousprojects,andmayalsoaffectthecostrecoveryofexistingprojects.NewChangesintheMarketofOutwardContractingProjectsThecharacteristicsofregionalchangeshaveemergedintheglobalcontractedprojects.Developedeconomiesasawholeshowadeceleratingtrend,witheconomicoutputfallingfrom2.3%in2018to2.0%and1.7%in2019and2020.Outputgrowthinemerginganddevelopingeconomiesisrelativelystable,from4.6%in2018to4.5%in2019,andisexpectedtoaccelerateto4.9%in2020.ThedropinoutputwasmostpronouncedintheUnitedStates.Thestimulatingeffectoftaxreformoneconomyisgraduallyweak
General plan for the construction of Liaoning "one belt and one road" comprehensive experimental zone.
Promotingtheconstructionof"onebeltandoneroad"isthegreatinitiativeoftheCentralCommitteeoftheCommunistPartyofChinawithComradeXiJinpingasthecore,holdinghighthebannerofpeacefuldevelopment,holdingtheprincipleofsharingandbuildingtogether,promotingwin-wincooperationandpromotingtheconstructionofthecommunityofhumandestiny.Itisthegeneralplanandthegeneralresponsibilityforadvancingtheall-roundopeningupofthenewera.InordertogivefullplaytoLiaoning'sroleandcontributetoLiaoning'seffortstopromoteLiaoning'soverallrevitalizationintheprocessofdeepeningthedevelopmentofparticipatinginthe"onebeltandoneway"development,theprovincialPartycommitteeandtheprovincialgovernmentdecidedtosetupacomprehensivetestareaforLiaoning's"onebeltandoneroad"comprehensiveplan.First,openanewchapterinthenewera:"onebeltandoneroad"willleadLiaoningtobefullyopen.(1)OpeningAdvantageTheancientChaoyangNiuheLiangHongshanculturalsiteprovestheexistenceofahighlycivilizedancientcountryinLiaoningprovince5500yearsago,whichisthehomeofthecommonancestorsofChinesecivilization.LiaoningisalsoanimportantnodeofthegrasslandSilkRoadinhistory.Sinceancienttimes,Liaoninghasinheritedalonghistoryofeconomic,tradeandculturalexchangeswiththeWesternRegionsandEurasia.AfterthefoundingofNewChina,LiaoninghascreatedabrilliantindustryinChina.Sincethereformandopeningup,Liaoninghasenteredanewjourneyofrevitalizingtheoldindustrialbase.Inthepastfiveyearssincetheconstructionof"onebeltandoneroad",Liaoningisfullofeldestson'sfeelings,stridestowardstheopenfrontier,andhasachievedfruitfulachievementsinvariousfieldsaroundthe"fivelinks"internationalcooperation.Ithaslaidagoodfoundationfortheestablishmentofthecomprehensivepilotareaof"onebeltandoneroad"andtheupgradingofLiaoning's"onebeltandoneroad".——Policycommunicationcontinuestodeepen.TheUnitedStates,Japan,SouthKorea,NorthKorea,Russia,France,GermanyandothersevencountrieshaveconsulatesinLiaoning.Theyhave17pairsoffriendlyprovincesandstatesand69pairsoffriendlycitieswith27countries.Theyhavetraderelationswith114countriesandregions,andthecircleofinternationalfriendscontinuestoexpand.Fourtyopenpoliciesandeightdouble-attractionanddouble-attractiongoldenpolicieshavebeenpromulgated,generalmanufacturingindustryhasbeenfullyliberalized,telecommunications,newenergyvehiclesandotherfieldshavebeenexpanded,andthelevelofforeigncooperationhasbeengraduallyupgraded.——FacilitiesUnicomhasaccelerateditsexpansion.Wewillpromoteall-roundinterconnectionwithoverseascountriesintermsof"land,seaandairnetworkice".In2017,thetotalportthroughputexceeded1.1billiontons,andtheportintegrationincreasedspeedandquality.OpeningtheNortheastArcticChannelofLiaohaiEurope,LiaohaiandManchuriaEurope,ChinaandEuropehave1143flights,withtransportcapacityrankingtheforefrontinChina.Inourcountry,wetaketheleadinrealizingtheland-county-to-countyexpressway,andwillsoonrealizethecity-to-cityhigh-speedrailway.Shenyang,Dalianandothereighttransportairportshaveopened63internationalroutes.Largedata,multimediaandothermoderncommunicationnetworkscoverthewholeprovince.——Tradeissmoothandfruitful.Multilateraltradeandinvestmentsystemhasbeengraduallyexpanded,andcooperationwithEuropean,AsianandAfricanproductioncapacityhasbeenaccelerated.China-Germany(Shenyang)high-endequipmentmanufacturingindustrialpark,HuachenBMWproject,XudabaoNuclearPowerPhaseII,weaponsgroupandSaudiArabia-USjointventurefinechemicalsandrawmaterialsprojectshavebeeneffectivelyintroduced;Romania,Uganda,Indiaandotheroverseasproductshavebeenintroduced.Theparkisprogressingsmoothly,andalargenumberofoutgoingprojectssuchasHungary-SeychellesRailway,HuachenIranianAutomobileFactoryandEasternSoftAfricaMedicalTreatmenthavebeenvigorouslypromoted.China(Liaoning)FreeTradePilotZoneandotherhigh-energyopenplatformshavehighlightedtheirfunctions.Huludaoswimsuit,Xiaobeihesocksindustryandanumberofcross-bordere-commerceandforeigntradenewformatscontinuetogrow.——Financinghasbeensteadilypromoted.TheDalianandShenyangfinancialagglomerationareashavebeenquickeningconstruction,andhavebeencloselycoordinatedwiththefinancialandinsuranceinstitutionssuchasChinaExportandCreditInsuranceCorpandChinaDevelopmentBank,innovatingtheservicemechanismof"banking,insuranceandenterprises",openingupagreenchannelforfinancing,improvingthefinancingandintelligenceconditionsofthe"onebeltandoneroad",andimprovingtherealleveloffinancialservices.——Thecommonfeelingsofthepeoplehaveawideinfluence.Anumberofculturalgroupshaveexhibitedandexchangedfrequently.TheinternationalinfluenceofChinaInternationalEquipmentManufacturingFair(ShenyangSystemFair)andChinaInternationalSoftwareandInformationServicesFair(DalianSoftFair)hasbeengraduallyenhanced.Morethan30universitieshavepromotedinternationalcooperationineducation,with23,000foreignstudentsrankingfirstinthecountry.Establishtourismcooperationmechanismwithmanycountriesanddeepencooperationinthefieldofhealthcare.RelyingonLiaoningelements,tellingLiaoningstorieswell,demonstratingthesoftpowerofChineseculture.——Theconstructionofthinktankshasachievedremarkableresults.DalianSummerDavosForumhasbecome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